T he declaration of Muhammadu Buhari as president-elect could have some telling effects in some states having governorship election on Saturday.
Main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Mohammadu Buhari casts his ballot at a polling station in the “Gidan Niyam Sakin Yara A ward” at Daura in Katsina State on March 28, 2015. Voting began in Nigeria’s general election but delays were reported countrywide because of technical problems in accrediting electors.
AFP PHOTO
AFP PHOTO
It was an unusual sort of celebration for the leading lights of the All Progressives Congress, APC, from the South-east, on Thursday, in Owerri, Imo State. The leaders of the party including Senator Chris Ngige, Senator Osita Izunaso and Chief Ogbonnoya Onu, were being hosted by Governor Rochas Okorocha for what was tagged the South-east APC Jubilation Rally for President-Elect Muhammadu Buhari.
The leaders who converged for the rally, overlooked their personal losses during the celebration to look at what they believed was the brighter side, to wit, how Buhari’s emergence would turn the scale against their political foes in the rival Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Ngige, Izunaso and Okorocha, in their separate remarks, had a common thread as they all alleged that the results that emerged from the Southeast was not a reflection of the voting that took place during last weekend’s president and National Assembly elections. The leaders alleged that the votes were skewed in favour of the PDP through the connivance of security agencies and officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
After rebuking the military and police for their alleged partisanship, the governor moved on to warn that such acts would no longer be condoned.
“They should rather protect the lives and property of the masses. APC would henceforth monitor the activities of the armed forces and report them to the appropriate quarters for the necessary actions”, Okorocha said.
The warning was to drive fear into military and police officers that further acts of partisanship could be counted against them after the inauguration of Buhari as President at the end of next month.
Indeed, there were speculations in Lagos after the announcement of the results that a very senior police officer who had had controversial tours of duty in Rivers State and Abuja and recently posted to Lagos had sought to make peace with a national leader of the APC in Lagos.
Such fear may have also been conveyed by the action of one of the country’s most unusual governors, Mr. Ayo Fayose, of Ekiti State. Even before President Goodluck Jonathan made that decisive phone call conceding defeat, Fayose had already put forward his own congratulations to the man he so much taunted during the campaigns.
Fayose’s move and reconciliation with Buhari are indicative of the measure with which political gladiators are approaching reality. That reality will further express itself on Saturday as Nigerians go to the polls to elect 29 governors and members of the 36 state Houses of Assembly.
In a number of the states, the outcome of the presidential election would be decisive in altering the permutations.
PDP Controlled States
In a number of states where the PDP or its candidates were relatively strong, the outcome of the presidential election would do little to help the APC candidates or depress the votes for the PDP.
Among such states are Enugu, Delta, Abia, Cross River and Taraba. In all four states, the APC is either not strong or is matched with an overwhelming presence of the PDP.
In Delta State, the emergence of Buhari is of relative insignificance given the fact that the threat to the PDP was essentially from Labour Party, a party that was in support of PDP’s presidential candidate, Jonathan, against Buhari.
The situation is, however, more gloomy for the PDP in Abia State where the candidate of the party is being tackled by an internal insurgency, led by a former bank executive, Alex Otti, of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, on one side and the Peoples Progressive Alliance’s candidate, Chief Chikwe Udensi, on the other.
However, what could play to the advantage of the PDP’s candidate, Okeize Ikpeazu, at the Saturday polls, would be the failure of the two opposition candidates to reach an agreement before the election.
Chief Orji Kalu, a former governor of the state who single-handedly planted the outgoing governor, Chief Theodore Orji had, recently, spoken of his determination to forge a united front with other Abia major stakeholders on the issue of succession, irrespective of the wishes of the present governor. If that desire is realised, that will present a serious challenge for Ikpeazu. However, the APC candidate, Chief Anyim Nyerere, despite the assurance he received from Okrorocha at last Thursday’s APC celebration rally, is almost doomed given the defection of his initial running mate, Prince Eke Idika, from the party.
Four PDP states, however, look more vulnerable after the presidential election. They are Benue, Plateau, Kaduna and Akwa Ibom.
The APC won two of the three Senate seats in Benue and is now posing a serious threat for the first time to dislodge the PDP from control of the Government House. The failure of the outgoing PDP administration to pay a backlog of salaries was one of the reasons the PDP was punished in Benue penultimate Saturday and there are indications that the same punishment may be more severely meted to the party on Saturday.
The Plateau PDP candidate, Senator Gyang Pwjok, also faced with the same challenge of an outgoing governor failing to pay salaries, has another delicate problem of confronting the ethnic gang-up of non-Beroms in the state against him. Many political stakeholders are peeved by the decision of the governor to project a fellow Berom man from his senatorial district as successor.
Another PDP controlled state that may fall on Saturday is Kaduna where the incumbent, Mukthar Yero, is matched against Mallam Nasir El-Rufai flying the ticket of the APC.
Despite the fact that Vice President Namadi Sambo is from the state, the PDP was thoroughly disgraced penultimate Saturday as it picked up only 27% of the votes leaving Buhari’s APC with 65% of the votes. The prospects of another humiliation for the party on Saturday are not far-fetched except something dramatic happens to upturn the situation.
APC Controlled States
Buhari’s election is expected to give some comfort to candidates in APC controlled states as the expected militarisation of the electoral space which many of them feared would expectedly be restrained in the light of the expected change of guards in Abuja.
However, for such APC controlled states as Lagos and Rivers where the stakes have already been raised to explosive heights, the guesses are that the political gladiators would as well go for broke given that a loss on Saturday would be politically disastrous.
Chief Bode George, a former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, who had, in the past, been quoted as saying he would go on exile if Buhari won the presidential election, was more restrained in an interview published in a national newspaper. According to him, he would put all his energies into ensuring that the PDP captures Lagos on Saturday as that could be his last foothold.
“I am here and I will be at the centre of operation. The people of Lagos also want a change, and we are going to be here to lead the battle. The battle is on and the people of Lagos want a change, and we will ensure that we get it right,” he was quoted as saying.
The scenario for Rivers remains unpredictable especially given the ‘coup’ of the PDP against the APC during the peunultimate Saturday that saw the PDP carrying all National Assembly seats in the state.
Undoubtedly, in all states holding governorship election on Saturday, the emergence of Buhari as president-elect has tilted the scale not in terms of voter preferences but in terms of a more level playing ground for the political gladiators.
With the emergence of Buhari, a saner outlook could emerge that would allow for a real electoral battle that remains unpredictable.
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