As 29 states in the land elect their Chief
Executive Officers on Saturday, our
correspondents examine the chances of the
leading candidates
After two weeks of respite from the presidential
and National Assembly elections, Nigerians will
again troop to their various polling units to
exercise their franchise on who leads their
individual states for the next four years.
The shifting table of political indices and
calculations can never be more turbulent as
these 29 Chief Executive Officers seek election
on a number of platforms.
How will the battle fare when the results of the
ballots cast are read by the umpires?
Abia
Abia, no doubt, is a predominantly Peoples
Democratic Party state. However, there is
apprehension in many quarters that the outcome
of the just-concluded presidential poll will have a
bandwagon effect on the forthcoming
governorship and House of Assembly elections in
the state.
Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu is the candidate of the ruling
PDP. Okezie is not a debuntant in Abia politics.
In the past eight years, he has been a close ally
of Governor Theodore Orji who was also
instrumental to his emergence as his party’s flag
bearer. He hails from Abia South favoured by the
power rotation argument and also from the
Ukwa-Ngwa bloc rated the most populous clan in
the state.
Similarly, Orji, his political godfather is expected
to stop at nothing in ensuring his victory. He
cannot afford to lose the state to the opposition.
Also the equity clause is in his favour as his
Abia South zone has yet to produce a governor
for the state.
However, the failure of the PDP at the federal
level portends danger for Ikpeazu. There seems
to be a grumbling against its leaders in the state
for their inability to mobilise enough support for
President Goodluck Jonathan at the presidential
poll. Although Jonathan won in Abia with
368,303 votes as against the over one million
delivered to him in 2011, residents felt the party
leaders did not do enough, and Ikpeazu may pay
for this. If the PDP must win at the poll, it must
work harder than it did at the last elections
because it is undeniable that the All Progressive
Grand Alliance poses a grave threat to its
continuity.
Another top candidate is Dr. Alex Otti, of APGA.
A core technocrat with wealth of experience,
national and international connections, Otti has a
lot of fans rooting for him.
Though new in politics, his emergence as the
APGA flag bearer after a brief stop-over in the
PDP has earned the party the status of the main
opposition in the state. More so his party won
one of the National Assembly seats in the state.
He is likely to get sympathy votes from some
voters who are still angry with the PDP.
Nyerere Anyim is the candidate of the All
Progressives Congress. He also hails from
Obingwa council just like his PDP counterpart.
He is among the candidates favoured by the
zoning formula. His chances have been
brightened by the victory of the APC at the
centre. Should the Abia electorate decide to key
into the mainstream party, Anyim may become
the main beneficiary.
Despite the victory of his party at the centre,
Anyim still has to work hard if he should
actualise his ambition as APC does not seem to
enjoy wide acceptance in not only the state but
the entire South East zone.
In all, the state is likely to be clinched by the
PDP.
Adamawa
Adamawa State has over the last one year
featured prominently in Nigeria’s political
equation. From the defection of former Governor
Murtala Nyako to his impeachment from office
and the musical chairs played by various “acting
governors”. Indigenes and residents of the state
now have a rare opportunity to choose a
governor which hopefully will be allowed to serve
out his term in office.
Those in the race are: Senator Jibrilla Bindow of
the APC, Nuhu Ribadu of the PDP and Marcus
Gundiri of the SDP.
Those familiar with the politics of the state
argue that with the turn of events, the race is
between the APC and the SDP. The chances of
Nuhu Ribadu are said to be slim, a situation
further worsened by PDP’s loss at the federal
level.
The odds favour Bindow of the APC who
emerged winner in the two primaries conducted
to pick a candidate for the APC. His chances
were further boosted by the party’s victory at
the just concluded presidential elections.
The APC also picked all the three senatorial
seats on offer in the state during last week’s
National Assembly elections. He equally enjoys
the support of former Vice President Atiku
Abubakar as well as the former Governor Nyako
and their loyalists.
However, Gunduri of the SDP is not a pushover.
Although the party is relatively new in the state,
the people rooting for him argue that he will be
voted for based on his personal merit. Barring
any last minute re-alignment, the APC has all the
aces.
Akwa Ibom
The governorship candidate of the PDP in Akwa
Ibom State, Mr. Udom Emmanuel, has been
positioned by the Akwa Ibom State governor, Mr.
Godswill Akpabio, to succeed him.
Emmanuel, who is new in politics, relies on
Akpabio for his governorship bid. Emmanuel was
drafted into politics by Akpabio’s wife as
Akpabio himself announced during the
inauguration of the PDP campaign committee.
The APC governorship candidate in the state is
Mr. Umana Umana.
The people of Akwa Ibom including former
Governor Victor Attah; former Petroleum Minister,
Chief Don Etiebet, and former Vice Chairman,
PDP, South-South, Chief Edet Mkpubre, though
all PDP members, have adopted Umana as their
governorship candidate.
The Accord Party’s governorship candidate is
Bishop Sam Akpan. But his chances in the
competition may not be bright enough
considering the forces that back the PDP and
APC candidates. This can be noticed by the
number of people that have left the AP for either
the PDP or the APC.
The Labour Party’s governorship candidate is
Senator Helen Esuene and she entered the race
late. She was a member of PDP aggrieved
governorship aspirants, otherwise known as G22.
Esuene relies on the formula which zoned the
governorship ticket to Akwa Ibom South
Senatorial District. She is the only female
governorship candidate in the state.
The battle actually is between the PDP and the
APC. While the APC has won in the presidential
election, the success has boosted its ego
towards winning the governorship election in the
state.
As it is now, nobody can be certain of which
party will produce the next governor between the
PDP and APC.
Bauchi
The APC, which is the major opposition party in
Bauchi State cleared all the National Assembly
seats in the last elections.
Observers are keenly watching to see if the ruling
PDP will recover from its defeat and make any
impression in the governorship and state Houses
of Assembly election on Saturday.
The two major contestants are the PDP’s Auwal
Jatau and Muhammed Abubakar of the APC.
Jatau is currently representing the Zaki Federal
Constituency in the House of Representatives.
Jatau, with his 16 years’ experience in politics,
has held various positions in the State House of
Assembly and served in many committees in the
House of Representatives.
Many say Jatau will become the next governor
going by the incumbency factor of Governor Issa
Yuguda and the fact that he (Jatau) with his
party has a deep purse.
But with the party’s dismal show at the March
28 polls, and despite PDP’s assurances, Jatau
faces a huge task.
Muhammed Abubakar, the APC candidate, is
seen as a successful public servant who has the
ability and knowhow to bridge the infrastructure
and social deficits in the state.
Also, given his age, many believe he has an edge
over the PDP candidate who is far younger.
However, some of the major hurdles Abubakar
will face in his journey to becoming Yuguda’s
successor is the acrimony that existed in the
party especially among the APC leaders in the
state.
For now, it is not so clear who will carry the day
among the two.
Benue
In Benue State there are basically two major
contenders to watch out for on April 11.
The first is Dr. Loraer Ortom of the APC. He is
an astute politician, businessman and
administrator.
When the people of Benue State came under
sustained attacks by Fulani herdsmen he
suspended the pursuit of his governorship
ambition for one month.
He stated that it did not make sense to continue
with political activities in pursuit of the ambition
when the people he wished to govern were under
continuous siege with hundreds of them killed.
Ortom, as it stands today, has the greatest
chances of winning the elections in the state. He
joined hands with Senators George Akume and
Barnabas Gemade to defeat the PDP and
Governor Gabriel Suswan in the state in the last
Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Terhemen Tarzoor, the PDP candidate was
elected into the Benue State House of Assembly
in 2007 and subsequently became the Speaker.
However, the Appeal Tribunal sitting in Makurdi
later nullified his mandate for ‘perceived’
irregularities observed during the conduct of his
April 2011 elections.
Come Saturday, the APC is the party to beat in
Benue.
Borno
The emergence of the Borno State governor in
2011 was determined by the then governor of
the state, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff. Then, it was
he who decided who became who in the now
defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party. He enthroned
his godson, Kashim Shettima, as governor.
But the father and son relationship which
characterised the early reign of Shettima soon
went awry and at the end of the day, Sheriff was
pushed out of the newly formed APC. He jumped
ship and returned to his old foe, the PDP, with
many of his acolytes.
Gambo Lawan is the PDP governorship
candidate.
But the real fight for the governorship seat is
actually between Sheriff and Shettima who stood
together in 2011 but now stand apart and
against each other.
Shettima, the incumbent governor, is standing on
a higher ground with the APC President-elect
being a strong advantage.
Can Sheriff, the acclaimed master strategist, re-
enact his magic? The question will be answered
on Saturday.
Cross River
In Cross River State, the three major contenders
are Prof. Ben Ayade of the ruling PDP in the
state, Mr. Fidelis Ugbo of the LP and Mr. Odey
Ochicha of the APC.
All the three candidates have the vast
experiences to govern the state, but since
politics is about number, the candidate of the
PDP may have an edge despite the outcome of
the presidential election which favoured the APC
at the federal level.
This is so because all other opposition parties
do not enjoy the huge followership the ruling
party has. Apart from followership, the PDP
candidates for the governorship and House of
Assembly positions carried out more campaigns
than their opponents in the other two parties.
The rigorous campaigns might have accounted
for the sweeping victory in the presidential and
National Assembly election where the party got
more than 95 per cent of the total votes cast for
its candidate, President Jonathan, and swept all
three senatorial districts and eight House of
Representatives slots.
Besides, an agreement between the two
opposition parties (LP and APC) to work as a
team to oust PDP in their respective areas of
strengths flopped at the just concluded
presidential and National Assembly election.
Hence, in Cross River, the PDP has it.
Delta
Though the PDP is still the party with the largest
following and spread in Delta, the prospect of an
APC government at the centre is fast changing
things. Some rearrangements and realignments
of political forces have started taking place.
Three men stand out from the crowd of
governorship candidates. They are Senator
Ifeanyi Okowa of the PDP; O’Tega Emerhor of
the APC and Great Ogboru of the LP.
Okowa’s advantage emanates from the presence
of the PDP’s structure in all the wards and local
governments in the state. This adds to the fact
that his party is the ruling party at both the
state and federal governments.
Though he was not the original candidate of the
incumbent governor, Governor Emmanuel
Uduaghan has since adopted him as his
candidate.
Next to Okowa is Ogboru of the LP. Ogboru has
become a veteran of the governorship election in
Delta State, having first contested as the
Alliance for Democracy candidate in 2003.
He ran for the office again in 2007 and 2011
respectively, coming in as first runner-up in the
three instances.
Each time, Ogboru contested he got the
endorsement of his native Urhobo who occupy a
third of the local government areas in the state
and form almost half the entire population of
Delta State.
His major handicap lies in the fact that his
ethnic group and senatorial zone have produced
two governors of the state in the past, and this
is swimming against a groundswell of
sentiments that for the sake of equity Delta
North should be allowed to produce the next
governor.
The third candidate is Emerhor, whose candidacy
has split the once united and powerful Urhobo
Progress Union into two factions. One faction is
backing him for governor, while the other is all
out for Ogboru.
Emerhor’s stamina has been boosted by the
victory of Buhari at the federal level. And the
new campaign slogan of Emerhor and his party,
the APC is that Delta State cannot afford to be
with a party in opposition.
But like Ogboru, he hails from Delta Central.
Though Emerhor’s party’s structures are more
widely distributed in the state, the party does not
enjoy the kind of patronage that the PDP has.
As things are, the PDP has it.
Ebonyi
Ebonyi is traditionally a PDP state, but the
protracted crisis in the state’s chapter of the
party, which culminated in Governor Martins
Elechi literally losing control of the party’s
machinery and facing impeachment, is sure to
have an effect on the governorship election.
Backed by the Secretary to the Government of
the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, and other
Abuja-based top politicians, the Deputy Governor,
Dave Umahi, was able to wrest control of the
party structure from his principal, Elechi.
Along the line, Umahi emerged as the PDP
governorship candidate, despite stiff opposition
from Elechi, who wanted former health minister,
Onyebuchi Chukwu, to succeed him.
The Elechi camp, including Chukwu, did not even
participate in the party primaries which produced
Umahi as the candidate.
At that point, the APC, with Senator Julius Ucha
as the governorship candidate, was the only
party capable of giving the PDP a meaningful
challenge in the governorship election, but, after
Elechi’s supporters moved into the LP in a bid to
realise their interests in the polls, the contest
now appears to be a three-horse race. Thus, the
governorship election is now a contest between
Umahi of the PDP, Ucha of the APC and Edward
Nkwegu of the LP.
Although Elechi did not follow his supporters to
the LP — he remains in the PDP — it is alleged
that he is backing, and funding the party.
Despite his travails in the PDP, the governor still
commands a formidable followership in the
state, as suggested by the massive turnout at
rallies staged to protest plans by the Ebonyi
State House of Assembly to impeach him.
The impeachment process has been suspended –
there are insinuations that it was shelved
because the PDP was afraid Elechi’s
impeachment could lead to some of its members
casting protest votes in favour of the opposition
parties – but there is no doubt that the wounds
have not been healed.
The huge margin with which the PDP won the
presidential election in the state — 323,625 votes
against 19,518 scored by the APC — suggests
that the ruling party will eventually carry the
day.
Enugu
The PDP governorship candidate in Enugu State,
a member of the House of Representatives,
Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, can afford to go into the polls
confident in his chances against Okey Ezea of
the APC and other candidates.
Although the PDP in Enugu would be worrying at
the possibility of the result of the presidential
poll affecting the voting pattern in the governship
election, the fact remains that the APC has little
or no structure in the state, and, added to that
disadvantage, it has not campaigned adequately.
While the PDP campaign train toured all parts of
the state, addressing massive crowds at every
stop, the APC’s campaigns were not so visible.
Ugwuanyi is widely popular in the state
reportedly as a result of several years of
sustained generosity and philanthropy on his
part.
The APC candidate, Ezea, had lost to the PDP in
the past. Although he has boasted that it would
be easy to defeat the ruling party this time
around, his campaign, party’s structure and
followership in the state do not justify his
optimism.
Most of the other candidates are not popular,
and some parties did not field any candidate —
the APGA reportedly adopted the PDP candidate.
Barring all unforeseen developments, the PDP is
set to continue ruling Enugu State after the April
11 elections.
Gombe
The governorship race in Gombe State is
between incumbent Governor Ibrahim
Dankwambo who is the candidate of the PDP
and a former Commissioner of Finance in the
State, Alhaji Inuwa Yahaya who is flying the flag
of the APC.
Dankwambo who before his elections as
governor was Nigeria’s Accountant-General is
facing the biggest threat to his political life
having fallen out with his erstwhile godfather
and predecessor, Senator Danjuma Goje.
His opponent, the APC candidate defeated
former Deputy Speaker of the House of
Representatives, Usman Nafada and one Murtala
Aliyu to clinch the party’s ticket during its last
primaries. With Goje’s support and the possible
band wagon effect Buhari’s victory could bring,
his chances of causing an upset are very high.
The race is too close to call.
Imo
With the current agitation for the restoration of
the Charter of Equity in Imo State, it is generally
believed that the 2015 governorship election in
the state will assume a different dimension.
Also, it is assumed that with the arrival of the
APC on the scene, the political equation in Imo
has not only changed; it now revolves around
three political parties, namely the APC, PDP and
APGA and their respective governorship
candidates.
Governor Rochas Okorocha’s power of
incumbency and the victory of his party, the
APC, at the presidential polls make him the
candidate to beat in Imo on Saturday.
The Deputy Speaker of the House of
Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, is considered
to be the closest rival of Okorocha in the race.
Ihedioha, who hails from Owerri Zone, stands a
good chance of being favoured by the zoning
formula in the state.
However, one factor that is counting against him
is the growing unpopularity of the PDP in the
state, due to its performance in the past and the
emergence of the APC as the ruling party at the
national level.
Captain Emmanuel Ihenacho, a former Minister
of Interior, is the standard bearer of the APGA in
Imo.
Iheanacho’s past record in public service and his
generosity to indigenes of the state have made
the electorate to be positively disposed to his
governorship ambition. He is also from the
Owerri Zone, which is expected to produce the
next governor in line with the famous Charter of
Equity that advocates the zoning of the position
among the three senatorial zones in the state.
Jigawa
Here, Sule Lamido calls the shots. No doubt,
Lamido who is the North-West Coordinator of
the Jonathan/Sambo Campaign Organisation has
turned Jigawa State into a ‘mini Abuja’ with
meagre federal allocation accruing to the state.
The question is, will the people of his state
compensate him by voting for his anointed
candidate, Aminu Ibrahim Rigim, who was his
Chief of Staff against the APC’s Muhammad
Badaru Abubakar and lost at centre, thus
becoming an opposition state? It is not clear
who will win here.
The party leadership had since set up a
reconciliatory committee to reconcile all the
aggrieved parties, meetings were said to have
been held to chart a way forward and some
officials of the party said some of the defeated
aspirants had cooperated with Abubakar given
the fact that they even sent their representatives
to Abubakar’s campaign rallies and meetings.
Kaduna
With the performance of the APC in the last
election, political watchers in Kaduna State are
of the belief that the gate to the Sir Kashim
Ibrahim Government House looks clearer to the
APC governorship candidate in the state, Malam
Nasir El-Rufai.
This, they ascribed to a likelihood of a
bandwagon effect. The voting pattern of the
presidential election which gave the APC
1,127,760 as against the PDP’s 484,085 votes
may be replicated on Saturday.
Before now, the incumbent governor, Mukhtar
Yero had high hopes of using his incumbency
power to fulfil his re-election bid. But with the
defeat at the federal level, his chances at the
poll are bleak.
Though the governor might have performed in
the state in the last two years after the demise
of his principal, late Patrick Yakowa, the APC
candidate and former FCT minister, appears to
command the crowd.
Analysts have given Saturday’s poll to the APC.
Kano
The incumbent deputy governor and governorship
candidate of the APC, Dr. Umar Ganduje, remains
the man to beat.
Apart from the power of incumbency, Ganduje is
expected to bring on board his vast experience
having served as a civil servant at the state and
federal levels. He was a staff of the Federal
Capital Territory Administration before joining
politics in 1998. He served as deputy governor to
Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso from 1999-2003
when they were voted out. He returned as
deputy governor when he and his boss were re-
elected in 2011.
His main challenger and candidate of the
opposition Peoples Democratic Party, Sagir Takai
is not a pushover. Having served as local
government chairman and twice as
commissioner, Takai goes into the contest with a
rich political background. He however has an
uphill task to convince Kano voters considering
the massive following the APC commands in the
state. All said and done, the state will go to
APC.
Katsina
In Katsina State where Ibrahim Shema holds
sway as the Chief Executive Officer, there will be
a fierce battle of supremacy as it is also the
home state of the President-elect. Shema may
not want to go down without a fight for his
anointed candidate, Musa Nashuni, an engineer
by profession. It was gathered that Nashuni has
become a household name in the state. Since
1999 to date the state has been a PDP state but
with the recent victory of the APC at the centre,
it is difficult to say if this will continue.
Judging from the giant stride in the state in the
areas of infrastructural development by the
Shema’s administration, analysts are of the view
that Nashuni will take the crown come April 11.
But again, analysts are of the belief that the APC
may want to join the centre to be led by their
son, Buhari, through the candidacy of the former
Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives,
Aminu Bello Masari, to avoid being an opposition
party. Political watchers said the bandwagon
effect may affect the state and at the end, the
former speaker may carry the day. Though the
battle promises to be fierce, the APC will
eventually have it.
Kebbi
This state which is currently in the hands of the
PDP is at the verge of returning to the hands of
the APC. The candidate of the PDP in the
governorship race, Maj. Gen. Sarkin-Yaki Bello.
He is new to politics having retired from the
army only a few years ago.
He has a formidable opponent in Senator
Abubakar Bagudu who dumped the PDP to join
the APC where he picked the ticket. His chances
are brightened by the emergence of Buhari as
President-elect. The state is most likely going to
the APC.
Kwara
Abdulfatah Ahmed, who is the APC governorship
candidate, is the incumbent governor.
Ahmed during the administration of his
predecessor and political godfather, Dr. Bukola
Saraki, was Commissioner for Finance and later
Commissioner for Economic Planning.
Third-term Senator Simeon Ajibola who is
reputed not to have lost any election in the state
is the PDP candidate. He is seen as a dogged
fighter and a politician of no mean repute. He is
also perceived as a grassroots person who
knows how to win the support of the masses.
But he has a long hurdle to cross with the APC’s
clout as the PDP only garnered a total of
156,853 votes for the three senatorial candidates
and a total of 141,335 votes for the six
candidates for the six federal constituencies in
the state.
Dr. Mike Omotosho who is the LP candidate,
though a new entrant in Kwara politics, appears
to be making some admirable impacts in the
state.
He has not only run predominantly an issue-
based campaign, he has also been empowering
thousands of the residents in different ways.
With the conclusion of the presidential and
National Assembly elections, which were won by
the APC, one does not need a clairvoyant to
predict how the pendulum will swing on
Saturday.
Lagos
The Lagos State governorship election is
expected to be a hotly contested one between
the PDP and the APC though 10 out of 15
political parties jostling for the state’s Round
House had stepped down for the APC. Lagos has
always been a stronghold of the opposition at
the national level.
With the APC set to be the national ruling party,
not a few analysts are tempted to think that the
state will likely fall into the hands of the major
opposition party, the PDP.
Akinwunmi Ambode is the APC governorship
candidate while Olujimi Agbaje is that of the
PDP.
While Ambode has not contested for any public
political office until now, he had been in the
government of the state for 25 years till his
retirement. The APC candidate has the backing
of the APC National Leader and a former
governor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu.
Agbaje, unlike Ambode, is not new to politics. He
was the National Treasurer of the socio-political
group, Afenifere. He later joined the Action
Congress. In 2007, Agbaje left the AC to join the
Democratic People’s Alliance in order to contest
for Lagos’ governorship election. His grouse was
that Tinubu allegedly single-handedly picked
Babatunde Fashola, who later became governor
in 2007.
Having failed in his bid to rule the state, Agbaje
left the DPA (following its de-registration by the
Independent National Electoral Commission) to
join the PDP in 2011. In 2014, he emerged as the
governorship flag bearer of the party having
defeated Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, his major
opponent, in the primary election.
Agbaje and his PDP seem to be relying more on
the votes of Lagos non-indigenes to wrest power
from the APC which has been ruling the state
since the advent of the current democratic
dispensation in 1999. Besides, Agbaje is
considered by many Lagosians as an individual
with an untainted political history. But, like
Ambode he carries the baggage of being
endorsed by a godfather.
On personal and professional level, Agbaje and
Ambode are considered as men of integrity. Both
men have been successful and accountable in
the professional careers -Agbaje as a pharmacist
and Ambode as a former auditor-general of the
state.
Given that APC is the ruling party and Lagos
being the base of the APC, Ambode is likely to
run away with victory. The fact that the party
also won the presidential election puts Ambode
in good stead.
Nasarawa
Nasarawa State was ruled by the PDP until 2011
when the then Action Congress of Nigeria took
over. But it is also one state that has felt the
pangs of insurgents thereby creating a sense of
deep insecurity among the residents.
Mr. Yusuf Agabi, a former Director of Finance at
the Federal Ministry of Finance, is the PDP
governorship candidate in the state.
Agabi’s choice, according to political pundits, is
sending cold waves into the camp of the
incumbent Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura.
Agabi is an Akyeh, a minority in the state.
Both Agabi and Al-Makura are Muslims thereby
dashing the hopes of those expecting a Christian
to be in the saddle.
The southern zone’s PDP big fishes expressed
confidence that they would deliver the zone
which is predominantly made up of peasants’
farmers who are being attacked by AK-47-
wielding Fulani herdsmen in the past three years.
The chance of the former minister of
information, Mr. Labaran Maku, to clinch the
governorship seat of the state is very slim.
A school of thought in the state argues that the
immediate past minister alleged that his former
party betrayed him at the governorship primary
held at the Guest House of the Federal
Polytechnic, Nasarawa.
Political analysts also opined that Maku lost grip
of his political importance immediately after the
result of the governorship primaries.
The Saturday contest may be neck and neck.
Niger
In Niger State, it will be a straight fight between
Umar Mohammad Nasko of the ruling PDP and
Abubakar Sani Bello of the APC.
However, there is a third contender who is a
female, Zuliyu Hassan Iman, on the platform of
the SDP. She is the first female governorship
candidate to be fielded by any political party in
the state.
In their campaign the trio traversed the nooks
and crannies of the 25 local government areas of
the state to sell their parties and candidatures.
With the victory of the APC in the presidential
and National Assembly polls, (the APC won the
presidential polls in the state and swept all the
three Senatorial seats) it will be extremely
difficult for Nasko to defeat Bello.
It will be a close tie for whoever will emerge
after Saturday’s election as the next governor of
the state. But the APC may have an upper hand.
Ogun
Senator Ibikunle Amosun is the incumbent
governor and the candidate of the APC. He
contested to be a governor under the defunct All
Nigeria Peoples Party in 2007 but lost.
In 2011, he re-contested under the now defunct
ACN and won. The ACN later joined the coalition
of others, ANPP and Congress for Progressive
Change to transform into the APC.
Amosun’s bid for re-election is a serious affair,
as he led all the campaign tours to the 236
wards and 20 local government areas in the
state.
But, residents are divided on whether or not SIA,
as Amosun is fondly called by his loyalists and
political admirers, deserves a re-election.
However, some residents saw the performance of
the APC in the presidential and the National
Assembly elections, as a boost for the
governor’s re-election bid.
The party won two of the three senatorial seats,
and seven out of the nine House of
Representatives slots in the state.
Gboyega Isiaka is a first class graduate of the
University of Ife now known as Obafemi
Awolowo University. He is the PDP’s candidate
and also not a rookie. He contested in the
governorship race in 2011 on the platform of the
Peoples Party of Nigeria. The PPN was formed
due to the in-fighting in the PDP in the state
then.
For the PDP candidate to make impact, the
different power blocs in the party must close
ranks and join hands with him.
It is also said that the Social Democratic Party
and PDP are working on the ‘Amosun must go’
agenda.
Isiaka and the SDP governorship candidate, Akin
Odunsi, are from Ogun West, which had never
produced a governor since the creation of the
state in 1976.
Odunsi, apart from being a one-term senator
representing Ogun West in the National
Assembly, has not contested for the
governorship slot before now.
Odunsi, an integrated marketing communication
guru, who had been relying more on the grass
roots political clout of the leader of the party,
Olusegun Osoba, before the presidential election
to fulfil his governorship ambition, may have to
look elsewhere for succour. This is because the
party performed poorly, as none of its candidates
made either the Senate or House of
Representatives seats.
If the APC sustains its tempo, it may not be too
difficult for Amosun to return to the Oke Ilewo
Government House.
Oyo
Before the presidential election, there was no
doubt that the contest would be close between
the APC and the other four political parties that
had adopted President Jonathan as their
presidential candidate. But after Jonathan’s
defeat, it is left to be seen if a bandwagon effect
will condemn Rashidi Ladoja of Accord Party,
Adebayo Alao-Akala of LP, Teslim Folarin of the
PDP and Seyi Makinde of the SDP to the loser’s
corner.
A former governor in the state, Ladoja enjoys the
sympathy of some people in the state, especially
Ibadan, having been a victim of political
manoeuvring which resulted in his impeachment
as governor in 2006. He formed AP and
contested the governorship election on the
party’s platform but lost his bid to return as
governor in 2011. He is back in the race as he,
Alao-Akala and incumbent Governor Abiola
Ajimobi attempt to become the state’s first two-
term governor.
Apart from being an acclaimed popular candidate
among his Ibadan people, Ladoja is also admired
by labour, especially teachers in the state. But
that popularity has been subjected to a strong
test and lots of questions after his political party
failed to win any of the National Assembly seats
in the March 28 elections in the state.
Alao-Akala profited from Ladoja’s 2006
impeachment but quickly gained popularity
among his supporters, especially the Ogbomoso
and part of Oke-Ogun people, because of his
philanthropic gesture. He lost his re-election bid
to Ajimobi in 2011 in a keenly contested election
but his popularity has not dwindled.
He left the PDP in December 2014 after it was
clear that he would not be given the
governorship ticket. On the day of the party’s
controversial primary election, he was handed
the governorship ticket of LP. Alao-Akala is the
only governorship candidate that was not swept
away in his stronghold by the Buhari/APC
tsunami.
Teslim Folarin was a former Senate leader who,
after failing to return to the upper legislative
chamber in 2011, bounced back to claim the PDP
governorship ticket.
Without any doubt, Governor Abiola Ajimobi
remains the man to beat in the state. Having
claimed victory in the presidential and National
Assembly elections, APC has the upper hand
going into the April 11 elections and the man to
profit from this is Ajimobi.
Plateau
The contest is between the ruling PDP’s Gyang
Pwajok, who is currently a senator and the
opposition APC’s, Simon Lalong.
In the face of glaring realities, PDP may be the
party to beat. This is because the state is
traditionally PDP and going by the voting pattern
in the last presidential election, it may be an
easy ride for the party. In the last election, PDP
garnered 549,615 votes to beat APC with
429,140. Therefore a clear win for PDP may be
predicted on Saturday.
Plateau people have long abhorred opposition
and since the dawn of democracy in Nigeria, the
people have always been on the side of the
ruling party. It was only in 1979 that the Nigeria
People’s Party, which was considered to be in
opposition ruled the state. Hence, they may want
to maintain the tradition of voting for the PDP.
But given the rancour that attended the PDP
primaries in the state and the emergence of
Pwajok as its flag bearer, some aggrieved
members may want to extract their own pound
of flesh. Already some of them are known to be
working for the opposition.
Also, Senator-elect Jeremiah Useni and returning
Senator Joshua Dariye, both of the PDP, have
not hidden their preference for the APC. Useni, a
strong apostle of zoning and power shift would
very much want the seat to go to the southern
zone while for Dariye it is a payback time for
Lalong’s loyalty during his troubled days as
governor of the state.
The APC may also be cashing in on the
sentiments of the zoning proponents, which grew
in large numbers in the aftermath of the
presidential elections. Again the results of the
last election, in which the PDP won with a slight
margin did not give the party a big thing to cheer
about. It is feared that the voting pattern on
Saturday may sway the APC way.
Rivers
In Rivers State, the governorship poll is a three-
man horse race among the APC’s Dr. Dakuku
Peterside, PDP’s Nyesom Wike and the LP’s
Tonye Princewill.
Wike is from Ikwerre, an upland area, where the
incumbent governor, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, hails
from while Peterside, a member of the House of
Representatives hails from Opobo, a coastal area
just like Princewill. Apart from being a member
of the House of Representatives, Peterside had in
the past served as the Chairman of Opobo Local
Government Area and Rivers State Commissioner
for Works during Amaechi’s first term in office.
Wike served two terms as a local government
chairman of Obio/Akpor. While in office, Wike
was later appointed the Chief of Staff,
Government House, Port Harcourt, a position he
held until he was appointed the Minister of State
for Education.
The race between Wike and Peterside remains a
tough call.
Sokoto
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu
Tambuwal, the candidate of the All Progressives
Congress is without a doubt the candidate to
beat in next Saturday’s governorship elections.
Having represented the people of the state at the
House of Representatives for three terms and
rising to the enviable position of Speaker,
Tambuwal’s victory can be said to be a done
deal. He enjoys the support of the people of the
state as well as the out-going governor who is
his political benefactor.
His main challenger, Senator Abdalla Wali, of the
PDP, will equally have an uphill task in his
attempt to defeat the candidate of the ruling
party. His problems are compounded by the fact
that the acrimony generated by the PDP
primaries which produced him as candidate is
still a subject of litigation. Former Minister of
Water Resources and Deputy Governor, Murktari
Shagari and other aspirants are still embittered
by the way the primaries were handled. Barring
any unforeseen circumstances, the state will go
to the APC.
Taraba
Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, the APC
candidate, is a lawyer by profession and a
successful business woman. Though she
possessed the requisite qualification with money
to run her campaign, some factors seem to be
working against her ambition of ruling the state
come May 29.
Even with these factors, she cannot be
dismissed with a wave of the hand. When she
contested as a senator in 2011 against former
governor of the state, Rev. Jolly Nyame, many
did not take her serious but she won the
election. Mid way in her term as senator, she
had a disagreement with Governor Danbaba
Suntai which was not settled leading to her
defection to the main opposition APC.
She became the APC leader in the state and built
the party structures and single-handedly financed
the party in the state to where it is today. With
this antecedence, she is expected to give Darius
and Kente a good run on Saturday.
David Kente, the SDP candidate is a professional
accountant and retired Director of Finance in the
National Assembly. Kente, defected from the
PDP to the SDP, citing lack of transparency and
injustice.
Kente is seen by many as one who is a major
threat to Darius Ishaku, the PDP governorship
flag bearer.
Ishaku, an architect, according to political
watchers in the state was not known before now
having spent a greater part of his life in Kaduna.
According to them, Darius is riding on the big
shoulders of General Theophilus Danjuma and
the political structures of Governor Danbaba
Suntai.
Factors like religion, ethnicity and regional
balance will play key roles in the voting pattern.
Alhassan being a woman and a Muslim would
not have it easy garnering support from the
Christian dominated southern and central zones.
She would certainly make an impact in the north
which is her zone.
Darius and Kente who are of Chamba and Jukun
extractions respectively in the southern part of
the state would divide their votes, but again
analysts are casting their lots in favour of the
PDP candidate, Ishaku, who currently enjoys the
support of the powers that be and other critical
political stakeholders in the state.
Yobe
The battle for the Yobe State Government House,
Damaturu will be between the incumbent
governor, Ibrahim Gaidam and an astute
politician, Adamu Waziri, who seems to have
been around for ages. Waziri first contested the
governorship election on the platform of the PDP
in 2003.
He got the ticket of the party in 2007 but in
2011 he lost at the primaries to now late
Senator Usman Albishir. Many had thought with
this loss, Waziri had bid farewell to the ambition
of ruling the state but they were all wrong as he
came back again to win the PDP ticket.
Waziri has a great following in the state where
he has become synonymous with the PDP. His
Achilles heels are that the PDP has never been
popular with the residents of the state.
For the incumbent, Ibrahim Gaidam of the APC,
a return ticket to the Government House is
almost certain after the initial hitches of the
legal position of being already sworn in twice as
a governor and the extension of stay at the
Government House beyond eight years if re-
elected. His party enjoys tremendous support
from the residents.
Gaidam is going to Saturday’s poll with a
depleted team having lost some of the staunch
members of the party to the opposition. This has
started taking its toll on the electoral fortune of
the party which won everything on offer during
the last 2011 general elections but lost one of
the three senatorial seats at the March 28
election.
Zamfara
The race for the governorship seat of this state
is among two familiar political allies turned foes.
The incumbent governor of the state and
candidate of the APC, Abdulazeez Yari, will be
squaring up with his predecessor, Alhaji Mamuda
Shinkafi, whom he defeated in 2011.
Both were members of the defunct ANPP before
the latter defected to the PDP shortly before the
2011 elections which he lost.
Shinkafi who is contesting to reclaim the seat he
lost in 2011 will be moving against the tide in
the sense that the federal might he was banking
on is largely decimated owing to the defeat the
PDP suffered at the federal level. The state is
most likely to remain firmly in the hands of the
APC.
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